Things continue to move quickly and very alarmingly in the Ukraine. For anyone having difficulty in trying to keep up, or just maintaining some understanding of what is happening in the extremities of the east of Europe, we’ve put together a quick summery of the Ukraine crisis in 2014, along with our analysis of the situation and an updated summary for ongoing conflict throughout 2015. With such a critical location on the border of Europe and Russia, what happens in the Ukraine could have fairly significant ramifications for global politics, which is why the escalation of events is getting so much news coverage at the moment and why the situation is so critical to Russian-European stability.
The 2014 Ukraine Crisis summary:
- Things started to get increasingly tense after the now ousted president of Ukraine, Viktor Yanukovych, decided against adopting a EU Association Agreement and free trade policies, which would have seen the country build its relations with Europe. The agreements had a lot of popularity with the people of Ukraine, so when Yanukovych pulled the plug and cemented ties with Russia instead, people became increasingly disgruntled.
- Tens of thousands of protesters had already gathered in the capital city of Kiev to show their frustrations at the social and economic position of the country, but following the u-turn on the agreements, this turned into a much bigger rally calling for the resignation of Yanukovych and a return to open dialogue with the EU.
- For a long time protesters had taken up position in occupation of Independence Square in the heart of Kiev’s administrative centre, but were forced out by riot police part way through February 2014. This led to a protracted struggle and things came to a head on Thursday 20th Feb when protesters advanced on Independence Square, reportedly armed with crude weapons of axes and homemade shields. This led to a lot of bloodshed as the police and special forces clashed along the lines of the battleground.
- During this time Russia seemed to imply that a show of strength was required from Ukraine to crack down on the protesters.
- With violence looking likely to continue into the weekend, Yanukovych jumped ship and fled to Russia on Friday 21st February 2014, where he went on to give a press conference implying that he remains the legitimate head of the Ukrainian government, despite a new government being formed with Arseniy Yatsenyuk appointed as the country’s new prime minister. Accusations of fraud, embezzlement and corruption were levied at Yanukovych by the new government following his departure.
- The new Ukrainian government was fully announced during the same week with MPs voting in the parliamentary cabinet. It features both politicians from the old guard as well as senior members of the protest groups. However, when they were presented at Independence Square, some of the names proved to be much less popular than others, so political stability is far from secured.
- In response to the situation, President Putin recommended the sanction to the Lower House of parliament to be able to deploy troops in Ukraine, ostensibly to protect citizens it considers to have Russian heritage, which was quickly passed. Russian forces have subsequently flooded the Crimea to secure the massive peninsula, which is populated by around 60% Russian-speaking citizens, along with a largely pro-Russia local government. As of the 3rd March 2014 Russia had reportedly called on the Ukrainian military in Crimea to surrender, although this has now been denied by the Russian authorities.
- A referendum was planned by Crimean MPs for the people of the peninsula to vote on whether or not to become a part of Russia. The referendum took place on the 16th March 2014, with the move to make the peninsula a part of Russia winning the vote.
- Within days of the referendum, Crimean leaders had signed a treaty to formalise the annexation and Ukraine security chiefs to announce the withdrawal of its troops in Chrimea.
- Pro-Russian citizens within Ukraine began to mobilise following the initial revolution, resulting in protracted conflict throughout the majority of 2014 as the government launched its military response to the insurgents
2015 summary:
- The conflict continued into 2015 with renewed fighting in Donetsk
- A ceasefire is called on the 12th February, but this is broken quickly afterwards as separatist rebels renewed fighting to take Debaltseve, a key city in Eastern Ukraine
It’s a pretty dire series of events and the level of escalation doesn’t appear to be dialing down, despite calls from the UN to move towards reconciliation and stability. With Russia now firmly in control of Crimea, it has created a new regional split in the Eastern European country.
There’s a hell of a lot to be frustrated about by the situation on all sides of the fence, but the crucial point is that escalation has occurred on all quarters, which had led to the stand-off, and arguably the most concerning series of events to have gripped Europe since the economic crisis.
If Yanukovych had listened to his people more, had Russia not pushed so hard for control over the country, had riot police not disbanding the protest camp, had not the protesters taken up arms, or the Yanukovych government responded so forcefully… It’s a list that goes on and on up through the Crimea annexation, Russian military presence in East Ukraine and protracted internal conflict within the country.
It’s hard to call the situation in Chrimea. Yes, there was a referendum, and the process of the change of sovereignty has been largely peaceful, but will it lead to a peaceful future for the region, or more divergence?
A part of the problem with politics is that all too often it’s left to the devices of just a small number of people to decide the fate of millions, if not billions, which is one of the reasons we’re in favour of general voting power for national policies, not just national politicians. Yanukovych and Putin held massive individual sway over the development of the situation, irrespective of the opinion of their citizens, which has contributed significantly to the development of the crisis. However, if referendums, or general voting occurred on a regular basis to make national decisions, personal power, egos and opinion would be taken out of the equation, allowing people to have more influence on their own future.
Political restructuring aside, there’s also a lot to be said for learning from the past and current good examples of what to do in similar situations. For example, London’s cool and calm response to riots and protests could have been a very good example to Yanukovych in terms of how to deal with instances of civil unrest. Although, the protesters in Kiev could have learned a whole lot from the conduct of Ghandi and the Indian population during their own struggles. Equally, the referendum in Scotland could be held up as a shining beacon for what eventually happened in Crimea, but without independent UN voting reviews it’s hard to know how fairly things played out.
On the other hand, there are equally other examples that imply that things are much less “us and them” with regards to Russia and their response to the situation. Islands off the coast of Argentina have teemed with military activity to protect offshore citizens, so the UK is far from being without its comparisons, but it does serve as a good example of how serious things can get when the opportunity to dial things down aren’t taken.
What we know for sure is that as ever the political structures of the day fail to safeguard positive outcomes. Hopefully, rationality, political debate, democracy and de-escalation will follow to bring the situation back down to earth calmly, but right now that looks like it might not be the case. Democratic elections were sorely needed in Ukraine as the previous government fell apart and the conflict began in order to create a legitimate government, and that went on to be the case in May 2014 when Petro Poroshenko was voted in as the president in general elections that saw a pro-Western government taking control of the majority of the country.
The rapid response referendum in Crimea did at least on the face of things allow the people to decide whether they wanted to become a part of Russia or not. However, questions still remain on whether all of the options (i.e. Russia, Ukraine or independence) were actually presented to them. Without being independently verified by UN representatives to safeguard the credibility of any elections or voting, it’s hard to say for sure what the legitimacy of the situation is.
At the same time, Russia should look to involve the UN in it’s “peace keeping” exercises throughout the conflict to ensure that the wrong impression doesn’t become a sticking point in global politics. It’s easier to step back from the brink than might first appear to be the case and that’s definitely got to be the positive outcome we’re all holding out for.
However, our point of view has always been that whenever national troops are deployed around the world, or unrest occurs, the UN should immediately send out peace keepers to ensure transparency and safety for the public. Once again that hasn’t happened and that’s a situation that needs to be addressed by the United Nations.
To end things on a lighter note, and to quote Thor, “I would rather be a good man than a great king”. If only more men in power had such lofty aspirations.
Sources:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/nov/29/ukraine-yanukovych-moscow-eu-summit
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-25307255
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/feb/20/ukraine-protesters-force-riot-police-independence-square-kiev-battle-control
https://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/02/20/russia-ukraine-president_n_4822308.html
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/feb/27/viktor-yanukovych-russia-ukrainian-president-moscow
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26359150
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/mar/02/russia-parliament-approves-military-ukraine-vladimir-putin
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26424738
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ukraine/10672417/Ukraine-live.htmlhttps://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26656617
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-31561769
